Real interest rates
Gold pays no yield, so its relative attractiveness rises when inflation-adjusted returns on bonds and deposits fall, and weakens when they rise. This is the slowest-moving but most durable driver of multi-year trends.
The US dollar
Gold is quoted in dollars, so a stronger dollar makes it more expensive for non-dollar buyers and typically pressures the price, while a weaker dollar supports it.
The rupee
For Indian buyers this is a second currency layer. A weaker rupee raises the domestic rate even when the dollar price of gold is flat, which is why Indian and international gold charts frequently disagree in direction.
Central bank and institutional demand
Sustained official-sector buying absorbs supply and supports prices over months rather than days. ETF and futures positioning transmits the same sentiment much faster, sometimes within hours.
Policy: import duty and taxes
A duty change reprices the Indian rate immediately and independently of the international price. This is a purely domestic driver and it can move the rate several hundred rupees per 10 grams in a single day.
Seasonal and physical demand
Wedding seasons and festivals lift physical offtake and tighten local supply, widening dealer premiums. Recycled scrap coming back into the market when prices spike works in the opposite direction.
What this means for a buyer
Trying to time a purchase to the day rarely works, because these forces conflict as often as they align. Spreading a large purchase over a few tranches, and checking the rate against a published board on the day of billing, is a more reliable discipline than waiting for a bottom.